a runner's diary of how 2020 changed our world
Introduction
I started doing the research and writing Running for Your Life in 2019. Because of travel and other commitments, I did not put pen to paper during the first two months of 2020. Then our world changed. I am not sure why but, for the rest of 2020, I did not work on completing the manuscript though I had a lot of time at home when, theoretically, I could have. Was it the shock of the devastation the pandemic was causing, or perhaps the disruption to my daily routine, that affected my motivation? What I did do instead was write a monthly diary documenting the course of the pandemic from a runner’s perspective, which I have included here. As you will note if you read this, I did a lot of running that year, mostly on my own, including running in many “virtual races,” with a fair degree of success.
We slowly started to turn the corner in 2021 as vaccines became available, at least in the United States and other developed countries, affording protection against serious illness. “Real” races returned as a result, and life gradually became more “normal.” Nevertheless, there were more deaths in the Unites States and many other countries attributed to Covid-19 in 2021 than there were in 2020, which is terribly sad. I wrote the last entry in this diary on the first day of January 2021 and, as the year went on, resumed working on the later chapters of the book discussing the racing scene over various distances.
By end of 2021 the official number of fatalities around the world had climbed to 5.4 million but actuarial estimates of excess deaths since the start of the pandemic suggest that the real number is considerably higher. Vaccinating as much of the world’s population as possible against Covid-19 remained a priority.
April 1, 2020
As I write this, it is April 1, 2020, and I am at home in suburban Connecticut. It is just over two months since my 73rdbirthday. I should have returned from a few days of skiing in Vail on Monday but we were forced to cancel the trip. In fact, the last time I went out anywhere, other than to run on the local roads, is approaching three weeks. At least I can still do that here - the roads are quiet, and I run alone – in some countries this is not allowed. April is the month I shall start my daily swim; I am fortunate to have an outdoor pool at home. As of today, unofficial statistics on diagnosed Covid-19 cases world-wide are approaching one million; the real numbers are presumably much higher as the statistics include only people who have been tested and received a positive test result. In the United States, and in many other countries, the availability of test kits is currently less than desired. More than 40,000 have perished to date across the globe, including 12,000 in Italy, 9,000 in Spain and some 3,000 in France. China, where the outbreak started late in 2019, reports just over 3,000 deaths.
In the United States, confirmed infections are over 200,000 and deaths are around 4,000, a fatality rate of around 2%. I am 40 miles from New York City, the worst hit location in the US. To illustrate how those in the front line can be infected, 15% of the New York police department is out sick and five officers have sadly succumbed to the virus. The virus is rampant in the county in Connecticut where I live, and we are under a “lock-down.” Only “essential businesses” are allowed to open across Connecticut and gatherings of more than three people are prohibited. In my town of 20,000, there are 55 confirmed cases, with others awaiting test results, and there have been six fatalities, including one in each of the last three days, a frightening percentage. We know we are in the early days of this pandemic and things will likely become much worse before they improve.
Yesterday, at a White House press briefing, experts predicted, using a statistical model, that there will be between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the US if we all follow the guidelines and most of us stay home. If not, the death toll will be higher. Around 25% of the US population is, however, still not subject to any kind of stay-at-home mandate, yet every state has infections, and most have fatalities.
At this point we have no idea of the number of people world-wide who will become infected or the number who will die this year. In fact, we will never know. I have visited India eight times, including all the major metropolitan areas, I know much of sub-Saharan Africa, I have been to most of the major cities in South America - millions of people live in crowded conditions in and around cities in the developing world. Sadly, the measures I can take to try to stay safe by isolation, are simply not possible for literally billions of people elsewhere on this planet, and isolation seems the only way to stop the spread until there is a vaccine. Japan has around 13 hospital beds per 1,000 people, India has one for every 2,000 people, and I suspect some countries in Africa have less than India. If Northern Italy, with its extensive and world-class hospital system, has been unable to cope, what will happen in India and the rest of the developing world? The evidence to date on the how contagious this virus is, suggests that large numbers of serious cases in the developing world that require hospitalization, will sadly not see a hospital bed.
On the running scene there are no races to enter. I have run throughout the mild winter we experienced in the north-eastern United States this year, participated in a 10k and 15k, and have been training for the tough 10k trail race near my home known as the “Leatherman Loop,” held in late April. It is reputed to be the second largest trail race in the country with a field of 1,500, limited to this number via a lottery. It has one chaotic mass start in which you race across a field before reaching a narrow trail, followed shortly thereafter by a river crossing. Not surprisingly, it has been cancelled.
Today is 29 days since I had a cardioversion procedure to correct the A-fib (atrial fibrillation) detected three months ago and an electrocardiogram I did at home this morning reveals that my heart is still in a normal rhythm, which is a relief.
This is the time of year for many of the big city marathons around the world. The Tokyo Marathon took place last month, somewhat controversially, but with only the small cadre of elite runners participating, no marathoners like me trying to achieve a personal goal, and no spectators. The Boston Marathon has been held every April since 1897 without fail; the organizers, BAA, have pushed it back to September; let us hope that staging an event like this will be possible by then. Will it be safe to do so, I wonder? Runners come from all over the world to run Boston. Infection rates world-wide may well be lower but the virus will still be omnipresent until we have a vaccine, which will surely not be this year.
The London Marathon been pushed back to October. Does this mean that five of the largest and most prestigious marathons on the calendar will now be held within a few weeks of one another? Berlin, Chicago and New York are traditionally the big marathons in the fall from which elite runners, as well as those who run with the masses, might choose one to enter. We shall see in due course if they take place and, if they do, how many runners will be prepared to abandon “social distancing” and take part.
In South Africa, where I started my running career, the famous 35-mile Two Oceans Marathon in Cape Town, traditionally held on Easter weekend, has been cancelled. As of today, the 56-mile Comrades Marathon, which takes place in June, is officially still on, but people I talk to say there is no chance it will go ahead.
One is left wondering when there will be racing, and when even social weekend runs as a group will be possible, instead of running solo. Will participation in races, whether big city marathons or your local 10k bounce back relatively quickly or take years to recover? Time will tell. In the meantime, a 5k race held on Easter weekend near where I live has been converted to a “virtual race.” You enter online on the website, just like you would have done last year, run a self-timed 5k alone on a course you choose, at any time that suits you up to when the race would have been held, and email your time to the race director, who will compile the “results.”
One thing I have noticed is a significant increase in the number of runners on the local roads since the lock-down began, all of them running alone. Are they people who would normally be at their place of work sitting behind a desk who are now stuck at home and can run more regularly? Have some taken up running for the first time to get outside for an hour? Are they people who previously went to a gym for exercise but cannot now, because gyms are closed? Do we have an uptick in the number of people who have experienced the joys of running and will continue to run in the months and years to come, or will the numbers that I see decrease when our lives return to some sort of “normal” state?
This pandemic has drastically altered our daily lives and may well do so in some ways for years to come. What will be the impact on the running scene, especially races? Does aerobic exercise like running, which is beneficial to our cardio-vascular system, including our lungs, help one to cope with a virus which attacks the lungs and our ability to breath? These are questions I ponder on April 1, 2020.
May 1, 2020
Today is Mayday in much of the world but there are few marches or parades, due to the stay-at-home orders in place in many countries. Unofficial statistics on diagnosed Covid-19 cases world-wide are around 3.2 million, three times what they were a month ago. 233,000 fatalities have been attributed to the virus. Having lived in Europe for a number of years I follow developments there with interest. Deaths in Italy are up to 28,000, Spain to 25,000 and France to 24,000. A month ago, the United Kingdom had few deaths, now there are a staggering 27,000. Some countries have done better in managing the pandemic; notable in Europe is Germany with less than 7,000 deaths. China, where it all started, is reporting less than 5,000 deaths and very few new infections. So far most of the developing world has not been hit too badly though the trend in Brazil and a few other countries is a concern.
In the United States confirmed infections passed one million cases a few days ago and recorded fatalities are around 64,000, up from 4,000 a month ago. Testing has improved but is still nowhere near where it needs to be. In the town where I live there are now 150 confirmed infections and sadly 25 fatalities, all older people, a few of whom I knew. While projected deaths in the US are now lower than the model from early April, several states that implemented lockdowns are already starting to open up. The effect of doing so on transmission of the virus is uncertain; some experts believe it is too early to allow people to mingle in public places, have a haircut or have their nails painted. Connecticut is considering lifting some restrictions in the second half of May but for now the stay-at-home order remains in place, and the only times I leave home is to go out to run or for a walk on the local roads. We have our groceries delivered.
On the running scene I ran close to 90 miles in April and feel good. My A-fib has not returned, my heart has now been in a normal rhythm for two months. It was an unusually cool, wet April here, perfect running weather on many days. No races of course – anywhere. I see the London Marathon is now considering holding the 2020 event this fall with elite runners only participating, as Tokyo did in March. We shall see. With what we know now I think the possibility of holding big city marathons this year looks a lot bleaker than it did on April 1, in the early days of the pandemic.
The 2020 Comrades Marathon in South Africa drew the maximum number of 27,500 entrants and has been officially “postponed” from June to an unspecified date. It will be the 95th Comrades when it takes place.
I am preparing to run my first “virtual race.” One of my favorite local races is a 10k held every year on Mother’s Day. It is a fairly flat circular course that I rather like, I have run it many times and have enjoyed a fair amount of success there. My best 10k times, both after turning 60 and after turning , were in this race, both age group records for the course. This year it is being held as a virtual race like the 5k I described above, which I did not enter. I will not run the actual course, instead I plan to run from a point 10kms from my home, finishing outside my house. It is far from flat where I live; the course I have chosen has plenty of hills. I have never run 10k as hard as I can alone against the clock, so this will be a first.
So many people are unemployed now, and that includes professional race directors everywhere. I am sure the number of entries will be way down from a normal Mother’s Day race but those of us who pay the entry fee will be helping, in a small way, those who stage the races we enjoy week in and week out in normal times.
June 1, 2020
Summer starts to unfold in the northern hemisphere, not that this virus seems to be affected by weather. Unofficial statistics on diagnosed Covid-19 cases world-wide are now around 6.2 million, almost double what they were a month ago. 372,000 fatalities have been attributed to the virus. Both numbers are no doubt understated. Latin America has become the new “hot spot” over the past month, Brazil in particular. One suspects that the counts there are not as comprehensive as they are in, say, Europe where the number of new cases and fatalities fell dramatically in May following extensive lockdowns. It will be interesting to see what happens as things start to open up across Europe.
In the United States confirmed infections have reached 1.8 million cases and recorded fatalities are around 104,000, up from 64,000 a month ago. The number of fatalities fell by 50% from April to May, which is good news. In the worst hit area of the country, in and around New York, there has been considerable improvement in the statistics and New York City will see a degree of opening up this month.
I had applied successfully for a permit to climb Mount Whitney in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains, the highest peak in the lower 48 states, over the summer solstice but will not be doing that. It is not so much being on the mountain trail that concerns me as taking a flight to get there.
In the running world the Boston Marathon has officially been cancelled, so for the first time since 1897 it will not be staged, though they are offering a “virtual marathon” alternative. Neither two world wars, nor the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 nor the bombing near the finish line in 2013 could stop Boston holding its marathon, the largest spectator sports event in New England, but Covid-19 has. The Berlin Marathon, where it is so difficult for the average runner to secure an entry, has been cancelled. I hope those who got in this year will be allowed into the field next year. The organizers of the Comrades Marathon in South Africa have also conceded that the 95th event will not be in 2020. My dream has been to run the 100th Comrades, as the 50th was my first. I would have been 78 so the odds were never good, now I will be at least a year older when the 100th is staged. What of London, Chicago, New York in the fall? We shall see.
I ran about 90 miles again this month and continue to feel good. I ran the “virtual 10k” Mother’s Day race on the 8th, finishing in 54 minutes, faster than a “real” 10k I ran in January when there were still road races. This was good enough to win my age group. I was pleased with my time, running alone against the clock and checking my pace against my watch after each kilometer. As with the real thing, entering this event and paying my fee provided an incentive to up my training tempo so I decided to enter the virtual equivalent of a popular local 5-mile race, traditionally held on Memorial Day, the last Monday in May. I ran this one on the 24th, once again choosing a point-to-point course that I thought would be reasonably fast. I completed it in just under 42 minutes, placing me 34th out of 130, again good enough to win my age group. Both events, not surprisingly, attracted much smaller events that they normally would. For the moment this is all there is. When real racing will return remains unknown. The race director who stages most events in this area tells me he is hoping the local summer cross-country series will happen in some fashion, starting later than normal in late June. I hope he is right.
July 1, 2020
Summer is now in full swing, but it is not like any summer I can remember. I mostly still go out to run, but am also playing some tennis while respecting “social distancing” rules, now that the weather is warmer. The virus continues to infect people at a worrying rate. Unofficial statistics on diagnosed Covid-19 cases world-wide are up to 10.5 million, an increase of roughly 4 million over the past month, whereas new cases in May were closer to 3 million. 512,000 fatalities have been attributed to the virus. Experts seem unanimous that the real numbers are much higher. Several possible vaccines are in trials but there has not been a breakthrough in terms of either a widely effective treatment or a vaccine yet.
In the United States confirmed infections are now 2.6 million, the infection rate overall is not slowing down. Recorded fatalities are around 128,000, so the monthly death rate continues to fall. Many of the people now being affected are younger people going about summer outdoor activities, especially in the southern half of the country. It was established early on that younger people are less susceptible to serious complications and hospitalization, hence the lower death rate. In Connecticut, where I live, and in New York and other states in the North-East, the infection rate is now quite low. Will it stay that way?
The New York City Marathon held annually in November, which I have run a number of times, has been cancelled. Interestingly, the Chicago Marathon, held in October, has not yet made a decision. London Marathon organizers are still hoping to hold the event in some form in October. As I write this today, I am doubtful that doing so would be a wise decision.
I ran exactly one hundred miles in June, the most in about three years, and feel good. The local cross-country series, which dates back more than 40 years, did receive approval; the first event took place a week ago and I participated. The field was limited to 50 under state regulations, we were required to wear a mask except while actually running, to stand next to a small flag at the start strategically placed so you were six feet or so from anyone else, and we had to disperse after crossing the finish line. It was nice to see runners whom I have known for years, but there is no socializing afterwards this time. The event went well, and the series will continue.
There are no races on the road. The ten-race “summer series” at which I won my age group last year, will be staged as a virtual series, starting with a two-mile “race” and getting longer every week, ending with a ten-miler in early September. You can run the actual course, which will be marked, but do not have to. I plan to map out my own courses near my home, run them at one a week and post my times online. The series starts in a few days.
August 1, 2020
The past two weeks have been extremely hot and humid in the north-east of the United States, and even hotter in other parts of the country, not ideal for running. Nothing has really changed in my day-to-day routine - I continue to swim daily, as I have since April, I ran on all but four days in July, and have continued to get onto the tennis court about three times a week. The virus is on a rampage, in India, Brazil, other parts of South America and parts of Africa, as I feared at the start of the pandemic. Unofficial statistics on diagnosed Covid-19 cases world-wide are now 17.6 million, an increase of roughly 7 million over the past month, a giddying surge. Who knows what the real number is, as many cases are asymptomatic or never officially reported. Global recorded fatalities are up to 680,000. Several promising vaccines are now moving into late-stage trials, which is a hopeful sign. What is not known, assuming one or more of these vaccines are successful, is how long they will provide immunity. I have read reports that suggest that the best we can hope for is up to a year, and that life-long immunity like, say, the polio vaccine, is unlikely. And then how long will it take to produce sufficient vaccines to inoculate enough of the world’s population to really suppress the virus?
In the United States confirmed infections rose from 2.6 million a month ago to a staggering 4.5 million in July; the infection rate has accelerated rapidly in the south, especially in higher population states like Florida, Texas and Arizona, as well as in California. Recorded fatalities are around 153,000, up 25,000 in the past month, about the same number of fatalities as in June. Fortunately, the death toll has not climbed along with the number of cases. There seem to be two factors behind this: younger, less vulnerable, people being affected, and the amazing work of medical staff in hospitals. With every month that goes by, doctors and nurses, still working without an approved, effective treatment, find more ways to keep people alive who might have succumbed a few months ago, as they learn about what protocols work and what do not in a given situation. I read about medical personnel working in Covid-19 wards in hospitals grinding out long hours, who have not had a day off in months. They are heroes.
I finally cancelled flight and hotel bookings for a trip with friends to Yosemite National Park in California for late September, something I have thought for some time would be inevitable but held off doing in the vain hope the situation would change. The park is closed to the public.
Professional sport has recently started up again, without fans in attendance. One of the first was the PGA golf tour and now the NBA and NHL have taken their teams into “bubbles” to try to finish their seasons that were suspended in March. Baseball has started a shortened season with roughly one-third of the number of games of a normal season, with teams traveling around the country to play at the normal venues, however, this is already running into problems in the first few days, as players and staff in two teams test positive for the virus. Major League Soccer is starting its season just as the suspended 2019/20 leagues in the powerhouse countries of England, Italy and Spain, have wrapped up their seasons and finally crowned their champions. The WNBA season is also underway. It will be interesting to see how all this unfolds. In the meantime, it is nice to finally have some sport to watch on TV, even though it looks somewhat weird with no spectators present.
With all that is going on, I record my admiration for what New York State, New Jersey and the New England states, including Connecticut, have achieved in containing the virus after the onslaught they confronted in the spring. If they had not succeeded in “flattening the curve”, I certainly would not be going out to play tennis or to run cross-country races, given my age.
The Chicago Marathon was finally cancelled a couple of weeks ago. All that remains of 2020’s “Marathon Majors” is London, which still has not made a decision. They say they will advise entrants in a week’s time. How they could safely stage an event with the normal large number of runners, volunteers and spectators is hard to imagine.
Once again, I ran one hundred miles last month. I ran four of the five local cross-country races and enjoyed them – a rare chance to run with others in a competitive event. One of these was the annual “age-graded” 4k race; I finished 42nd out of the now permitted maximum of 60 runners and 21st out of 60 when times are adjusted for sex and age using World Masters Association tables. I also ran the first five of the local ten race “virtual summer series” on the road, alone on courses I mapped out myself. These races are attracting around 45 entrants, way lower than last year when I ran six of the ten “live” races in this series. Starting at two miles the distance increased week by week and was up to five miles at the end of July. The longer events follow in August. I do not find it easy running mile after mile hard against the clock but recognize it helps raise my fitness level.
September 1, 2020
As we reach the latter stages of summer, the incidence of Covid-19 remains low where I live and in most of Connecticut. Local schools have recently re-opened, it will be interesting to see if this causes any kind of spike. Other parts of the US are not doing as well. Nationwide, reported infections have now crossed the six million mark, 1.5 million in the last month, though this is a million lower than in July. Fatalities in the US now number 184,000, roughly 30,000 in the month of August, which is sadly higher than July.
The onslaught continues across the world , the situation is bad in Brazil and India in particular. Cases worldwide now number 25.7 million, with 850,000 fatalities. It is only a matter of time before this number reaches one million – before the end of the month at the current rate.
On the running scene the last of the major marathons, London, was cancelled as far as the masses are concerned. Next year’s date has been set in October 2021 rather than April, when it is normally held. This seems sensible to me. The world’s top runners will have to choose between London and Berlin if the latter goes ahead next year; some normally do both as they are six months apart. London is holding an elite runner only marathon on a closed course without spectators – consisting of 20 laps round St. James’ Park in front of Buckingham Palace. I used to run in the park regularly when I lived in London and know it well. It is a beautiful park, has no hills but has tight turns so would not be a fast course compared, say, to the traditional London Marathon course.
There has been plenty of sports to watch on TV this month – from baseball, basketball, hockey and soccer to golf, and the US Open tennis got underway a few days ago. It looks odd with no spectators at any of these events, but safety has to come first. I received my refund for tickets I had bought for the tennis as well as the US Open golf, which will be played next month a half hour from where I live, but without spectators.
On the local running scene, the weekly cross-country races continued without mishap and I ran three of the four. Starved of “real races” the series has tended to hit the maximum of 70 advance entrants permitted during August. I also ran, alone, the next four of the summer series road races. These were between six and nine miles; as the races have got longer the number of entrants has dropped to around 30 entrants. Unlike the earlier ones, which I ran on fast point to point courses, I ran all of these on circular courses starting and finishing near my home. It is hard to make comparisons on a different course from last year when I ran six events in this series, but my times are better and I have felt pretty good on these longer runs. Only the tenth race in the series, ten miles, remains.
October 1, 2020
Fall is definitely in the air and the leaves are changing color, a beautiful time of year in New England. For me the “virtual” racing scene has ended for now and I have cut back on the distance I am running. There is going to be a small-scale road race this month, the first in this area in six months or more, but I do not plan to do it. It will offer 10k and half-marathon distances. Connecticut continues to do a good job in controlling the spread of Covid-19 after the initial outbreak, which is why an event like this is allowed to take place. Last year I ran one of the most popular local half-marathons the first weekend of October, events of this size are not possible today.
The spread of Covid-10 continues and hit some sad milestones last month. The number of confirmed deaths worldwide passed the one million mark, with 34.7 million infections, up nine million from a month ago. There has been a worrying resurgence in Europe, notably in Spain and France as well as the United Kingdom.
Fatalities in the US passed the 200,000 mark and stand at 207,000 and the number of confirmed cases is now 7.3 million, roughly 20% of the total worldwide. About the only good news in this is that the number of fatalities was lower in September than August. Although we do not have a cure or vaccine, yet, as time has gone by the medical profession continues to learn more about the virus and ways to treat patients and lower the fatality rate.
In September there was once again an abundance of sport to watch on TV - without spectators. For the first time, all the major professional sports leagues in the US were underway at the same time – baseball, basketball, hockey, soccer, either in the middle of, or wrapping up, their seasons, along with the start of the National Football League season. Even the postponed Kentucky Derby was run. On the global stage, Formula 1 motor racing was in full swing, the three-week Tour D’France was staged, and the French Open tennis, normally played in late spring, is underway, following on the heels of the US Open.
The London Marathon is in a few days. In addition to the “elite race” in St. James’s Park that I described above, there will be a “virtual marathon” for some 45,000, staged along similar lines to the virtual races I have been doing in recent months. I admire the organizers for not giving up and doing the best they can in the circumstances, as the London Marathon is a huge fundraiser for charities.
The pandemic has brought home to me the unique characteristics of the sport of road running when compared to any other sport I can think of, when it comes to big city marathons with large amounts of prize money for professional athletes. It is the only sport where the top athletes in the world are participating in the same event as thousands of everyday amateurs like me. These major city marathons also bring out tens of thousands of spectators to line the course and cheer on the athletes, not just the elite runners at the front but also the thousands who follow them. In fact, if it were not for the participation of the masses, most of the spectators would not be there to watch the best of the best racing for the win.
I remember watching the men’s marathon at the Olympic Games in London in 2012, as I do every time the Olympics come around. Run through many of the same parts of the city as the London Marathon, spectators were sparse, even though the best marathoners in the world were racing for gold. It is the whole, hours long, spectacle of a city marathon that attracts spectators, not just the world-class performers who flash by at the front. Because of the numbers involved, big-time city marathon running as we have known it, with thousands of runners and tens of thousands of spectators all in close proximity, seems unlikely to return until the pandemic is over, whenever that might be. Until then, it looks like the elite runners will run on their own, as they did in Tokyo in March and will in London this weekend, without spectators. Unfortunately, without the masses, interest in their performances, is unlikely to be the same. Here in the US, most runners I know seem unaware London Marathon weekend is almost upon us.
November 1, 2020
Last night was full moon and of course Halloween, a strange one. In our town residents were asked to leave candy outside by the front door and children were asked to help themselves and not ring the bell – a “contactless” Halloween.
The spectator-less London Marathon took place on the first Sunday of October, with its limited field of elite runners going around and around in St. James’s Park. I applaud the race organizers for persevering and affording the world’s best a chance to run this modified race. Major league baseball, as well as the professional basketball and hockey seasons all wrapped up in recent weeks; baseball was a shortened 2020 season, the others finally completed their 2019/20 seasons many months late. Fortunately, the “bubbles” in which athletes lived and performed, and the absence of spectators, seems to have kept all involved relatively safe, while providing the sports-starved public the chance to watch sport on television.
With the change of seasons there were no races, even, virtual races, where I live, but I continue to run most days. Fall in New England is a wonderful time to be outdoors and to run; the colors this year have been spectacular.
The virus is on the rampage again, especially in the United States, and much of Western and Central Europe. “Lockdowns” have been imposed in recent days in Spain, France, Germany, Belgium, the United Kingdom and elsewhere in Europe, in the hope of reducing the spread sufficiently to take the pressure off hospitals and with a view to allowing a degree of opening up before Christmas.
The number of confirmed infections worldwide rose to 46,2 million, a staggering 33% increase over the past month. Fatalities are closing in on 1.2 million. The real numbers are no doubt significantly higher.
In the US there were over 1.8 million new cases in October, bringing the total to over 9 million. The incidence of new cases is rising in most of the country but is most severe in the upper Midwest at present. A further 30,000 have succumbed to the virus, roughly a thousand a day on average. While doctors have been able to reduce fatalities over the past six months with steroids, blood thinners and other drugs, as well as more use of supplemental oxygen while ventilating only the most serious cases, we can expect the fatality rate to climb over the next month or two due to the time lag between rising infections and rising fatalities.
The wearing of masks is widespread where I live and, from what I saw visiting the city for an appointment a couple of days ago, almost universal in New York City, at least in mid-town Manhattan. The most serious recent outbreaks in the city have occurred in the boroughs of Brooklyn and Queens. From what I read, mask wearing and “social distancing” is less prevalent in some other parts of the country.
How the pandemic will unfold as the northern hemisphere enters the winter months and people spend less time outdoors, remains to be seen but the trend is worrying. There is still no cure, or sign of an imminent cure, and the timing and efficacy of vaccines remains unclear. It may be a long time before road racing returns for the masses returns.
December 1, 2020
As I feared a month ago, the colder weather coupled with fatigue from being restricted from normal social activities for more than six months has caused a scary increase in Covid-19 statistics as reported by Johns Hopkins University, which has been an authority on pandemic statistics since the early days. There are now 64.3 million confirmed cases worldwide, a staggering increase of 18 million in the last 30 days. Confirmed fatalities are now almost 1.5 million across the world, 20% of those have occurred in the last month. Things are bad in much of Europe, in Brazil, in India and in other developing countries.
In the US, with an advanced healthcare system and only around 5% of the planet’s population, there are around 13.9 million confirmed cases as compared to 9 million a month ago. The Centers for Disease Control estimates that the real number of infections could be as much as eight times this number, as many people who catch the virus, and can spread it, are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms, and are not tested.
The statistics on deaths, at least in the US, are probably more accurate as a majority of deaths follow a diagnosis and hospitalization. There have been roughly 36,000 deaths in November, with the number hitting 2,000 on some days. The total since the start of the pandemic is now 273,000. About the only good news is that a far greater percentage of people who are hospitalized are now surviving, though some are left with serious and lingering health issues. Currently over 90,000 people are in hospital receiving treatment for symptoms of the virus, and in some parts of the country, as well as in other countries, hospitals are close to being overwhelmed.
Many people traveled over the recent Thanksgiving holiday, by car, train or by air; travel by air was down 50% to 60% compared to the same period last year, however, air travel six months ago was at minimal. Experts think all the travel will prove to be a “super-spreader” as happened with holiday weekends in the summer, and that cases will rise dramatically in the next few weeks. We shall see.
While we do not have a cure there has been welcome news on the vaccine front in the last couple of weeks. Two vaccines that provide at least a 95% level of protection in clinical trials have applied for emergency approval from authorities in the USA and other countries. A third vaccine, developed in the UK, is close to approval at least in the UK. It seems that vaccination, with two doses, will commence in the next month or two, starting with healthcare workers and the most vulnerable members of society.
I have not run a race in virtual format since the end of summer, and there have been few opportunities recently for anyone in my area who wanted to do so. The traditional Thanksgiving Day 5k “Turkey Trots” went virtual, if they were held at all. I have continued to do all my running alone. With the virus raging this seems the safest way to run.
I received word about plans for the 2021 series of four local races known as the “Boston Build Up.” Starting with a 10k in early January, the series continues every two to three weeks with the distance increasing 5k with each race. The first race will be a virtual race, with a twist. Runners are expected to run the actual course, which will be marked, within a time window of a few days and post their time on the website. The race director is hoping that “real races” will be allowed by the time of the second race later in January, or at least for the third race. We shall see; I am personally not optimistic.
January 1, 2021
The year 2020 is over and ended on a worrying note. As expected, extensive travel over the Thanksgiving holiday caused a surge in infections in the USA. A further 6 million people were diagnosed with Covid-19 in December, with the total count having now reached 20 million. Consider that two months ago that number was 9 million and you can see how people have let their guard down allowing rampant spread. A month ago, 90,000 people in the US were hospitalized, now it is 125,000. Sadly, a further 77,000 people lost their lives to this virus in December, double the number of fatalities in November and the highest since the start of the pandemic. Around 350,000 have now perished. With the large numbers now hospitalized, and the impact of millions of people traveling over the Christmas and New Year holiday period yet to be felt, the statistics for January are expected by the experts to be even worse.
Much of Europe is also struggling to contain the virus and some parts are under severe restrictions. Things are also bad in Brazil and other South American countries, in South Africa and elsewhere. Japan has seen a recent upward trend. More easily transmitted mutations of the virus were detected in the UK and South Africa and have spread to other countries. December saw the official number of cases worldwide climb by 20 million to 84 million. It will no doubt pass the 100 million milestone sometime in January. Around the world the death toll climbed by another 300,000 to 1.8 million. The death rate remains a little above 2% of diagnosed infections.
There is, however, good news on the vaccine front. The two vaccines that I referred to a month ago were approved for emergency use in the US and one of them in the European Union and a number of other countries as well; administration of the vaccine started immediately thereafter. A further vaccine developed in the UK has been approved by the authorities there. There is finally light at the end of the dark tunnel but it remains a very long tunnel.
I have continued to run alone but, over the past three months, but have cut the monthly distance by more than half compared to what I was doing in the summer when I took part in low-key local cross-country races and virtual road races. This is partly because it is colder outside, also because in December there were no races of any kind near where I live for which to train. Virtual races start up again in January, but I am not sure when I shall participate. My enthusiasm for virtual races has dimmed. Professional sports have continued to be played with relatively low numbers of infections, though mostly without spectators present. The advantage of home field (or home court etc.) for team sports is diminished without the home fans, which makes things interesting.
What about the Summer Olympic Games, postponed for a year and due to start in Tokyo in a little more than six months? The Japanese prime minister says the games will go ahead, though many of his countrymen are opposed. For me it is hard to imagine how something as vast as the Olympic Games can be staged next summer. Numerous events go on every day at the Olympics at many venues. The number of athletes and officials moving around daily is staggering. Surely this will be a logistical nightmare even if spectators are not allowed, something which has yet to be determined. Millions and millions of people will be vaccinated over the next six months, but current projections are that vaccines will not have reached countless millions more by July, given the scale of the task to vaccinate the whole world.
If the Games are not held this year, they will not take place at all. For athletes in many sports - track and field, swimming and diving, gymnastics and others - the Summer Olympics is their “Super Bowl.” If it turns out that there will be an eight-year gap between Rio in 2016 and Paris in 2024, for some world class athletes the chance to compete at the peak of their careers will have passed by 2024, similar to the gaps caused by the two World Wars in the twentieth century. Let us hope, for their sake, the Games can go on.
Back in March we had no idea how this pandemic would unfold or how long it would last. Vaccines have been developed at a speed unheard of until now, which is remarkable; this hopefully means the pandemic will end at some point. We cannot know when. While trails show them to be effective in preventing people from getting sick, there is much we still do not know about the vaccines. Do they effectively prevent you from catching the virus and transmitting it to others while not experiencing symptoms, a major problem up to now? How long does the vaccine last before you need to be revaccinated? Will enough people be willing to take the vaccine for the general population to develop so-called “herd immunity,” whereby there are insufficient hosts for the virus to remain a threat? How long will it take to vaccinate the entire world? Until we have answers, it is impossible to know how long this pandemic will remain with us. As we enter the new year, much uncertainty remains.
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